Evading danger: the crisis impact framework for real estate
Abstract
With continuing urbanisation, real estate (RE) has become increasingly important in crisis management. The field of crisis research is still fragmented, especially in the RE context and focuses on the retrospective analysis of single crisis events. This qualitative, futures studies–based paper aims to build a more holistic, foresight-driven understanding of how diverse crises affect RE. It identifies 128 possible future crises from a societal perspective and adopts a novel method in the field, the Futures Wheel, to collect the views of 179 practicing and academic experts via 58 multidisciplinary workshops to analyse the impacts of the identified crises. From this analysis emerged the Crisis Impact Framework for Real Estate, which includes 23 impact themes that synthesise the variety of direct and indirect crisis impacts on RE’s hard elements (e.g. the physical condition of materials) and soft elements (e.g. economic value changes). This study contributes an integrated and foresight-driven perspective to the existing research literature. The framework can assist RE market participants in preparing and assessing critical elements of RE before, during and after crisis impacts have manifested and can help spatial planners, investors and RE managers to reflect in a more multidimensional manner on their vulnerabilities and crisis preparedness.
Keyword : real estate, built environment, crisis, crisis management, risk management, resilience, urban resilience
How to Cite
Tähtinen, L., Toivonen, S., & Rashidfarokhi, A. (2023). Evading danger: the crisis impact framework for real estate. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 27(5), 332–350. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2023.20444
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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Dhara, R., & Dhara, V. R. (1995). Bhopal – a case study of international disaster. International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health, 1(1), 58–69. https://doi.org/10.1179/oeh.1995.1.1.58
Dyer, M., Dyer, R., Weng, M.-H., Wu, S., Grey, T., Gleeson, R., & Ferrari, T. G. (2019) Framework for soft and hard city infrastructures. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Urban Design and Planning, 172(6), 219–227. https://doi.org/10.1680/jurdp.19.00021
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Glenn, J. C. (2009). The futures wheel. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures research methodology, version 3.0 [CD-ROM]. Millennium Project.
Haase, A. (2020). Covid-19 as a social crisis and justice challenge for cities. Frontiers in Sociology, 5, 583638. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2020.583638
Haigh, R., & Amaratunga, D. (2010). An integrative review of the built environment discipline’s role in the development of society’s resilience to disasters. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 1(1), 11–24. https://doi.org/10.1108/17595901011026454
Hassler, U., & Kohler, N. (2014). Resilience in the built environment. Building Research & Information, 42(2), 119–129. https://doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2014.873593
Heinonen, S., & Ruotsalainen, J. (2011, June 3–4). Anticipation and interpretation of black swans as a learning process – lessons of a volcanic ash cloud. In Proceedings of the Conference “Security in Futures – Security in Change” (pp. 180–190), Turku, Finland. University of Turku.
Heinonen, S., Karjalainen, J., Ruotsalainen, J., & Steinmüller, K. (2017). Surprise as the new normal–implications for energy security. European Journal of Futures Research, 5(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-017-0117-5
Holgersen, S. (2014). Urban responses to the economic crisis: confirmation of urban policies as crisis management in Malmö. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 38(1), 285–301. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2427.12029
Hosseinikhah, H., & Zarrabi, A. (2021). Application of futures studies and scenario planning models in earthquake crisis response planning. Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis, 13(2), 377–399. https://doi.org/10.37043/JURA.2021.13.2.10
Howell, K. L. (2016). Planning for empowerment: upending the traditional approach to planning for affordable housing in the face of gentrification. Planning Theory & Practice, 17(2), 210–226. https://doi.org/10.1080/14649357.2016.1156729
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