Housing types, population attributes and the development path of housing in large cities – a case study of Zhengzhou, China
Abstract
Large-city housing costs are commonly attributed to excessive investment or financialization of the property market. The primary cause of housing issues is the imbalance between housing supply and demand. In the context of the urban housing market, the dynamic matching of housing supply and population type plays a crucial role in promoting equilibrium, maximizing the effectiveness of the market’s long-term mechanism, and preserving the coordination and stability of the market. To illustrate this point, the paper analyzes the impact of different attributes of population on housing demand from the perspective of dynamic matching between population attributes and housing types. Taking Zhengzhou City in Henan Province as an example, we consider the relationship between population attributes and housing types in the past, construct a theoretical model of population and housing type and anticipate the future supply scale of various housing kinds. Ultimately, our findings provide a theoretical justification for curbing excessive financialization and housing bubbles in large cities. Furthermore, we propose a practical method for urban housing to return to the essence of life from the perspective of matching housing supply and demand.
Keyword : urban housing, housing types, population attributes, population increment, development path, housing matching
How to Cite
Shen, Z., Li, J., Siraj, A., Taneja, S., & Li, Z. (2023). Housing types, population attributes and the development path of housing in large cities – a case study of Zhengzhou, China. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 27(5), 317–331. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2023.20425
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Li, Z., & Wu, F. (2006). Socio-spatial differentiation and residential inequalities in Shanghai: a case study of three neighbourhoods. Housing Studies, 21(5), 695–717. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673030600807365
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Llopis Alvarez, A., & Muller-Eie, D. (2022). Housing circumstances and quality of life among local and immigrant population in Norwegian neighbourhoods. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 37(1), 157–178. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-021-09853-w
Malmberg, B. (2010). Low fertility and the housing market: evidence from Swedish regional data. European Journal of Population / Revue Européenne de Démographie, 26(2), 229–244. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-009-9205-y
Miles, D. (2012). Population density, house prices and mortgage design. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 59(5), 444–466. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2012.00589.x
Mulder, C. H. (2006). Population and housing: a two-sided relationship. Demographic Research, 15, 401–412. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.13
Myers, D. (1990). Housing demography: linking demographic structure and housing markets. University of Wisconsin Press.
Myers, D., & Pitkin, J. (2009). Demographic forces and turning points in American city, 1950-2040. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 626(1), 91–111. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716209344838
Myers, D., Painter, G., Zissimopoulos, J., Lee, H., & Thunell, J. (2019). Simulating the change in young adult homeownership through 2035: effects of growing diversity and rising educational attainment. Housing Policy Debate, 29(1), 126–142. https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2018.1452045
National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2020). China statistical yearbook. China Statistics Press.
Rodriguez-Pose, A., & Storper, M. (2020). Housing, urban growth and inequalities: the limits to deregulation and upzoning in reducing economic and spatial inequality. Urban Studies, 57(2), 223–248. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098019859458
Skovgaard Nielsen, R. (2017). The potentials of a strong social housing sector: the case of Turks and Somalis in the Copenhagen housing market. Housing, Theory and Society, 34(4), 458–476. https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2016.1274678
Sood, A., & Vicino, T. J. (2023). The politics of studentification: an analysis of the student housing debate in Boston. Housing Policy Debate, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2023.2236078
Wang, X. R., Hui, E. C. M., & Sun, J. X. (2017). Population migration, urbanization and housing prices: evidence from the cities in China. Habitat International, 66, 49–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.05.010
Wang, X., Hui, E. C. M., & Sun, J. (2018). Population aging, mobility, and real estate price: evidence from cities in China. Sustainability, 10(9), 3140. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093140
Wang, Y., Cui, C., Wang, Q., Ning, Y., & Yanag, Z. (2021). Migration of human capital in the context of vying for talent competition: a case study of China’s “first class” university graduates. Geographical Research, 40(3), 743–761.
Weng, G., & Pan, Y. (2019). Spatial mismatch analysis of newly-increased housing demand, housing and land supply in urban areas. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 35(1), 75–81.
Wilkinson, C., & Greenhalgh, P. (2022). Exploring student housing demand, supply side and planning policy responses in a small university city: studentification in Durham, UK. Housing Policy Debate, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2022.2137379
Wu, Y., & Li, Y. (2018). Impact of government intervention in the housing market: evidence from the housing purchase restriction policy in China. Applied Economics, 50(6), 691–705. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1340569
Yan, S., Ge, X. J., & Wu, Q. (2014). Government intervention in land market and its impacts on land supply and new housing supply: evidence from major Chinese markets. Habitat International, 44, 517–527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2014.10.009
Yang, Z., & Pan, Y. (2020). Human capital, housing prices, and regional economic development: will “vying for talent” through policy succeed? Cities, 98, 102577. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.102577
Yu, H. (2011). Size and characteristic of housing bubbles in China’s major cities: 1999–2010. China & World Economy, 19(6), 56–75. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2011.01266.x
Yu, H., & Huang, Y. (2016). Regional heterogeneity and the trans-regional interaction of housing prices and inflation: evidence from China’s 35 major cities. Urban Studies, 53(16), 3472–3492. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015617882
Zhao, P. (2013). The impact of urban sprawl on social segregation in Beijing and a limited role for spatial planning. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 104(5), 571–587. https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12030
Zhao, P., & Howden-Chapman, P. (2010). Social inequalities in mobility: the impact of the hukou system on migrants’ job accessibility and commuting costs in Beijing. International Development Planning Review, 32(3–4), 363–384. https://doi.org/10.3828/idpr.2010.13
Zhengzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Bureau. (2021). Zhengzhou housing security and real estate bureau 2021 annual report on government information disclosure. https://public.zhengzhou.gov.cn/D42Y/6238409.jhtml
Zou, Y. (2014). Contradictions in China’s affordable housing policy: goals vs. structure. Habitat International, 41, 8–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2013.06.001
Campbell, B. O. (1963). Long swings in residential construction: the postwar experience. The American Economic Review, 53(2), 508–518. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1823891
Chen, J., & Wu, F. (2022). Housing and land financialization under the state ownership of land in China. Land Use Policy, 112, 104844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104844
Chen, J., Guo, F., & Wu, Y. (2011). One decade of urban housing reform in China: urban housing price dynamics and the role of migration and urbanization, 1995-2005. Habitat International, 35(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2010.02.003
Chiu, R. L. (2007). Planning, land and affordable housing in Hong Kong. Housing Studies, 22(1), 63–81. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673030601024614
Choi, C., Jung, H., & Su, L. (2019). Population structure and housing prices: evidence from Chinese provincial panel data. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(1), 29–38. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1496417
Day, C. (2018). Population and house prices in the United Kingdom. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 65(2), 127–141. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12166
Ding, Y. (2019). Housing prices and population dynamics in urban China. Pacific Economic Review, 24(1), 27–45. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12271
Eichholtz, P., & Lindenthal, T. (2014). Demographics, human capital, and the demand for housing. Journal of Housing Economics, 26, 19–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2014.06.002
Garha, N. S., & Azevedo, A. B. (2021). Population and housing (mis)match in Lisbon, 1981–2018. A challenge for an aging society. Social Sciences, 10(3), 102. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci10030102
Gevorgyan, K. (2019). Do demographic changes affect house prices? Journal of Demographic Economics, 85(4), 305–320. https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2019.9
Glaeser, E., Huang, W., Ma, Y., & Shleifer, A. (2017). A real estate boom with Chinese characteristics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(1), 93–116. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.1.93
Green, R. K., & Lee, H. (2016). Age, demographics, and the demand for housing, revisited. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 61, 86–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.09.005
Hanink, D. M., Cromley, R. G., & Ebenstein, A. Y. (2012). Spatial variation in the determinants of house prices and apartment rents in China. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 45(2), 347–363. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-010-9262-3
He, C., Li, D., & Yu, J. (2022). Quantifying the spatial-temporal variation of population urbanization and affordable housing land in China. Land, 11(2), 259. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11020259
Henan Province Bureau of Statistics. (2021). Henan statistical yearbook. China Statistics Press.
Howard, G., & Liebersohn, J. (2021). Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities. Journal of Urban Economics, 124, 103369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103369
Huang, Y. (2004). Housing markets, government behaviors, and housing choice: a case study of three cities in China. Environment and Planning A, 36(1), 45–68. https://doi.org/10.1068/a35158
Jia, S., Wang, Y., & Fan, G. Z. (2018). Home-purchase limits and housing prices: evidence from China. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 56(3), 386–409. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-017-9615-2
Lauster, N. T. (2008). Better homes and families: housing markets and young couple stability in Sweden. Journal of Marriage and Family, 70(4), 891–903. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-3737.2008.00534.x
Levin, E., Montagnoli, A., & Wright, R. E. (2009). Demographic change and the housing market: evidence from a comparison of Scotland and England. Urban Studies, 46(1), 27–43. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098008098635
Li, C., & Fan, Y. (2020). Housing wealth inequality in urban China: the transition from welfare allocation to market differentiation. Journal of Chinese Sociology, 7(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40711-020-00129-4
Li, L. H., Wu, F., Dai, M., Gao, Y., & Pan, J. (2017). Housing affordability of university graduates in Guangzhou. Habitat International, 67, 137–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.07.007
Li, T., Zhang, Y. T., Zhu, H. W., & Liu, P. J. (2022). Floating population, housing security and family medical economic risk. Sustainability, 14(18), 11220. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811220
Li, Z., & Wu, F. (2006). Socio-spatial differentiation and residential inequalities in Shanghai: a case study of three neighbourhoods. Housing Studies, 21(5), 695–717. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673030600807365
Liang, W., Lu, M., & Zhang, H. (2016). Housing prices raise wages: estimating the unexpected effects of land supply regulation in China. Journal of Housing Economics, 33, 70–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2016.07.002
Lin, X., Zhong, J., Ren, T., & Zhu, G. (2022). Spatial-temporal effects of urban housing prices on job location choice of college graduates: evidence from urban China. Cities, 126, 103690. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103690
Liu, Y., Gao, H., Cai, J., Lu, Y., & Fan, Z. (2022). Urbanization path, housing price and land finance: international experience and China’s facts. Land Use Policy, 113, 105866. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105866
Llopis Alvarez, A., & Muller-Eie, D. (2022). Housing circumstances and quality of life among local and immigrant population in Norwegian neighbourhoods. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 37(1), 157–178. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-021-09853-w
Malmberg, B. (2010). Low fertility and the housing market: evidence from Swedish regional data. European Journal of Population / Revue Européenne de Démographie, 26(2), 229–244. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-009-9205-y
Miles, D. (2012). Population density, house prices and mortgage design. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 59(5), 444–466. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2012.00589.x
Mulder, C. H. (2006). Population and housing: a two-sided relationship. Demographic Research, 15, 401–412. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.13
Myers, D. (1990). Housing demography: linking demographic structure and housing markets. University of Wisconsin Press.
Myers, D., & Pitkin, J. (2009). Demographic forces and turning points in American city, 1950-2040. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 626(1), 91–111. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716209344838
Myers, D., Painter, G., Zissimopoulos, J., Lee, H., & Thunell, J. (2019). Simulating the change in young adult homeownership through 2035: effects of growing diversity and rising educational attainment. Housing Policy Debate, 29(1), 126–142. https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2018.1452045
National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2020). China statistical yearbook. China Statistics Press.
Rodriguez-Pose, A., & Storper, M. (2020). Housing, urban growth and inequalities: the limits to deregulation and upzoning in reducing economic and spatial inequality. Urban Studies, 57(2), 223–248. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098019859458
Skovgaard Nielsen, R. (2017). The potentials of a strong social housing sector: the case of Turks and Somalis in the Copenhagen housing market. Housing, Theory and Society, 34(4), 458–476. https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2016.1274678
Sood, A., & Vicino, T. J. (2023). The politics of studentification: an analysis of the student housing debate in Boston. Housing Policy Debate, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2023.2236078
Wang, X. R., Hui, E. C. M., & Sun, J. X. (2017). Population migration, urbanization and housing prices: evidence from the cities in China. Habitat International, 66, 49–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.05.010
Wang, X., Hui, E. C. M., & Sun, J. (2018). Population aging, mobility, and real estate price: evidence from cities in China. Sustainability, 10(9), 3140. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093140
Wang, Y., Cui, C., Wang, Q., Ning, Y., & Yanag, Z. (2021). Migration of human capital in the context of vying for talent competition: a case study of China’s “first class” university graduates. Geographical Research, 40(3), 743–761.
Weng, G., & Pan, Y. (2019). Spatial mismatch analysis of newly-increased housing demand, housing and land supply in urban areas. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 35(1), 75–81.
Wilkinson, C., & Greenhalgh, P. (2022). Exploring student housing demand, supply side and planning policy responses in a small university city: studentification in Durham, UK. Housing Policy Debate, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2022.2137379
Wu, Y., & Li, Y. (2018). Impact of government intervention in the housing market: evidence from the housing purchase restriction policy in China. Applied Economics, 50(6), 691–705. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1340569
Yan, S., Ge, X. J., & Wu, Q. (2014). Government intervention in land market and its impacts on land supply and new housing supply: evidence from major Chinese markets. Habitat International, 44, 517–527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2014.10.009
Yang, Z., & Pan, Y. (2020). Human capital, housing prices, and regional economic development: will “vying for talent” through policy succeed? Cities, 98, 102577. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.102577
Yu, H. (2011). Size and characteristic of housing bubbles in China’s major cities: 1999–2010. China & World Economy, 19(6), 56–75. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2011.01266.x
Yu, H., & Huang, Y. (2016). Regional heterogeneity and the trans-regional interaction of housing prices and inflation: evidence from China’s 35 major cities. Urban Studies, 53(16), 3472–3492. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015617882
Zhao, P. (2013). The impact of urban sprawl on social segregation in Beijing and a limited role for spatial planning. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 104(5), 571–587. https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12030
Zhao, P., & Howden-Chapman, P. (2010). Social inequalities in mobility: the impact of the hukou system on migrants’ job accessibility and commuting costs in Beijing. International Development Planning Review, 32(3–4), 363–384. https://doi.org/10.3828/idpr.2010.13
Zhengzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Bureau. (2021). Zhengzhou housing security and real estate bureau 2021 annual report on government information disclosure. https://public.zhengzhou.gov.cn/D42Y/6238409.jhtml
Zou, Y. (2014). Contradictions in China’s affordable housing policy: goals vs. structure. Habitat International, 41, 8–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2013.06.001