House age and housing prices: a viewpoint of the optimal time for land redevelopment
Abstract
The value of a property comprises the value of both the building and the land. Numerous studies have reported a nonlinear relationship between house age and housing prices, which may result from mispricing the value of the land. The paper establishes a theoretical model to evaluate the optimal time for land redevelopment and the land value after redevelopment according to the real options. Although the depreciation effect causes the value of buildings to decrease as house age increases, properties with a lower residual building value have a higher probability of being redeveloped. Thus, the depreciation effect of building value and the inverse depreciation effect of land value contribute to the nonlinear relationship between house age and housing prices. Data from Taipei City, Taiwan, are employed for empirical analysis. The results imply that where land is scarce, housing prices are unlikely to depreciate due to ageing buildings.
Keyword : house age, depreciation effect, inverse depreciation effect, land redevelopment, real option
How to Cite
Wang, W.-K., & Tsai, I.-C. (2022). House age and housing prices: a viewpoint of the optimal time for land redevelopment. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 26(3), 172-187. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2022.16984
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Chen, Y., Connolly, M., Tang, W., & Su, T. (2009). The value of mortgage prepayment and default options. Journal of Futures Markets, 29(9), 840–861. https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.20388
Clapp, J. M., & Salavei, K. (2010). Hedonic pricing with redevelopment options: a new approach to estimating depreciation effects. Journal of Urban Economics, 67(3), 362–377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2009.11.003
Coulson, N. E., & McMillen, D. P. (2008). Estimating time, age and vintage effects in housing prices. Journal of Housing Economics, 17(2), 138–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2008.03.002
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Djurakulovich, G. B., & Kizi, M. M. O. (2021). Analysis of real estate valuation methods (On the example of residential buildings). Academicia Globe: Inderscience Research, 2(7), 61–65. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/QR3ED
Edmonds Jr., R. G. (1984). A theoretical basis for hedonic regression: a research primer. Real Estate Economics, 12(1), 72–85. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00311
Ewald, C.-O., & Wang, W.-K. (2010). Irreversible investment with Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type mean reversion. Mathematical Social Sciences, 59, 314–318. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2009.12.002
Francke, M. K., & van de Minne, A. M. (2017). Land, structure and depreciation. Real Estate Economics, 45(2), 415–451. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12146
Freeman, A. M. (1979). Benefits of environmental improvement: theory and practice. Resources for the Future.
Geltner, D., Miller, N., Clayton, J., & Eichholtz, P. (2014). Commercial real estate analysis and investments. OnCourse Learning.
Goodman, A. C., & Thibodeau, T. G. (1995). Age-related heteroskedasticity in hedonic house price equations. Journal of Housing Research, 6(1), 25–42. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24825889
Guo, J., Xu, S., & Bi, Z. (2014). An integrated cost-based approach for real estate appraisals. Information Technology and Management, 15, 131–139. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10799-012-0152-7
Halvorsen, R., & Pollakowski, H. O. (1981). Choice of functional form for hedonic price equations. Journal of Urban Economics, 10(1), 37–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(81)90021-8
Higgins, D. M., Rezaei, A., & Wood, P. (2019). The value of a tram station on local house prices: an hedonic modelling approach. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 25(3), 217–227. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2019.1693323
Hong, D.-Y., & Lin, C.-C. (1999). A study on the impact of subway system and road width on the housing prices of Taipei. Journal of Housing Studies, 8, 47–67 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.6375/JHS.199908.0047
Hulten, C. R., & Wykoff, F. C. (1981). The estimation of economic depreciation using vintage asset prices: an application of the Box-Cox power transformation. Journal of Econometrics, 15(3), 367–396. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(81)90101-9
Knight, J. R., & Sirmans, C. F. (1996). Depreciation, maintenance, and housing prices. Journal of Housing Economics, 5(4), 369–389. https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.1996.0019
Koenker, R., & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33–50. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913643
Koenker, R., & Hallock, K. F. (2001). Quantile regression. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(4), 143–156. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.15.4.143
Lai, Y., Tang, B., Chen, X., & Zheng, X. (2021). Spatial determinants of land redevelopment in the urban renewal processes in Shenzhen, China. Land Use Policy, 103, 105330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105330
Lee, B. B., Chung, E.-C., & Kim, Y. H. (2005). Dwelling age, redevelopment, and housing prices: the case of apartment complexes in Seoul. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 30, 55–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-004-4831-y
Lee, C.-C., Liang, C.-M., & Chen, C.-Y. (2017). The impact of urban renewal on neighborhood housing prices in Taipei: an application of the difference-in-difference method. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 32, 407–428. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-016-9518-1
Liang, J., & Yuan, C. (2021). Data price determinants based on a hedonic pricing model. Big Data Research, 25, 100249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bdr.2021.100249
Liao, W.-C., & Wang, X. (2012). Hedonic house prices and spatial quantile regression. Journal of Housing Economics, 21(1), 16–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2011.11.001
Lin, S.-J. (2004). The marginal willingness-to-pay of star public elementary and junior high school districts in Taipei City. Journal of Housing Studies, 13(1), 15–34 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.6375/JHS.200406.0015
Lin, J.-J., & Hwang, C.-H. (2004). Analysis of property prices before and after the opening of the Taipei subway system. Annals of Regional Science, 38, 687–704. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-003-0185-2
Lu, C.-L., Liao, W.-C., & Peng, C.-W. (2020a). Developers’ perspectives on timing to build: evidence from microdata of land acquisition and development. Journal of Housing Economics, 49, 101709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2020.101709
Lu, Z., Wang, H., Liu, G., & Yang, L. (2020b). Optimization of the layout in land redevelopment based on the comparative advantage perspective. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 146(4), 05020018. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000607
Malaitham, S., Fukuda, A., Vichiensan, V., & Wasuntarasook, V. (2020). Hedonic pricing model of assessed and market land values: a case study in Bangkok metropolitan area, Thailand. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 8(1), 153–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2018.09.008
Malpezzi, S. (2008). Hedonic pricing models: a selective and applied review. In T. O’Sullivan & K. Gibb (Eds.), Housing economics and public policy (pp. 67–89). Blackwell Science. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470690680.ch5
Malpezzi, S., Ozanne, L., & Thibodeau, T. G. (1987). Microeconomic estimates of housing depreciation. Land Economics, 63(4), 372–385. https://doi.org/10.2307/3146294
Margolis, S. E. (1982). Depreciation of housing: an empirical consideration of the filtering hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 64(1), 90–96. https://doi.org/10.2307/1937947
Mirkatouli, J., & Samadi, R. (2017). An analysis on the role of urban land market in spatial development of cities: a case study of Mashhad, Iran. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 21(4), 371–383. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2016.1262473
Moore, J. W. (2012, June). Improving the cost approach value estimate with new model assumptions. Fair and Equitable, 10(6), 3–15.
Muchová, Z., Konc, L., & Petrovič, F. (2018). Land plots valuation in land consolidation in Slovakia: a need for a new approach. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(5), 372–380. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.5221
Munneke, H. J., & Womack, K. S. (2020). Valuing the redevelopment option component of urban land values. Real Estate Economics, 48(1), 294–338. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12192
Nelson, J. P. (1978). Residential choice, hedonic prices, and the demand for urban air quality. Journal of Urban Economics, 5(3), 357–369. https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(78)90016-5
Olden, J. D., & Tamayo, M. (2014). Incentivizing the public to support invasive species management: Eurasian Milfoil reduces lakefront property values. PLoS ONE, 9(10), e110458. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0110458
Pagourtzi, E., Assimakopoulos, V., Hatzichristos, T., & French, N. (2003). Real estate appraisal: a review of valuation methods. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 21(4), 383–401. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635780310483656
Pindyck, R. S. (2000). Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy. Resource and Energy Economics, 22, 233–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0928-7655(00)00033-6
Randolph, W. C. (1988). Housing depreciation and aging bias in the consumer price index. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 6(3), 359–371. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1988.10509673
Rehm, M., Filippova, O., & Stone, J. (2006). The influence of vintage on house value. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 12(3), 232–253. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2006.11104208
Remeikienė, R., Gasparėnienė, L., & Ginevičius, R. (2019). The specificity of the investment in land as in real estate. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 23(4), 244–255. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2019.8092
Rolheiser, L., van Dijk, D., & van de Minne, A. (2020). Housing vintage and price dynamics. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 84, 103569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103569
Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy, 82(1), 34–55. https://doi.org/10.1086/260169
Samsura, A. (2013). Games and the city: applying game-theoretical approaches to land and property development analysis [Doctoral dissertation]. Radboud University.
Samsura, A. A., & van der Krabben, E. (2012). Negotiating land and property development: a game theoretical approach to value capturing. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 5(1), 48–65. https://doi.org/10.1108/17539261211216003
Sayce, S., Smith, J., Cooper, R., & Venmore-Rowland, P. (2006). Real estate appraisal: from value to worth. John Wiley & Sons.
Shilling, J. D., Sirmans, C. F., & Dombrow, J. F. (1991). Measuring depreciation in single-family rental and owner-occupied housing. Journal of Housing Economics, 1(4), 368–383. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1051-1377(05)80018-X
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