The impacts of task complexity, overconfidence, confirmation bias, customer influence, and anchoring on variations in real estate valuations
Abstract
Real estate valuation relies on real estate appraisers’ accurate assessments, which reflects the need to improve the objectivity of the valuation process. From the perspective of behavioral economics, appraisers are prone to numerous behavioral conflicts that could result in variations in their valuations. This study investigates the impacts of task complexity, overconfidence, confirmation bias, client influence, and anchoring on variations in real estate valuations. An online questionnaire was administered to 272 members of the Taiwan Real Estate Appraisers Association LINE group. Structural equation modeling was employed for analysis. A total of 150 valid responses were collected, yielding a valid response rate of 55.15%. The empirical results revealed that cognitive bias and client influence have significant and positive impacts on anchoring. Task complexity, overconfidence, and customer influence have significant and positive impacts on valuation variation. In addition to being the first study to explore the relationship between task complexity and valuation variation, this study also explored unconventional issues, such as the relationships between overconfidence, confirmation bias, and valuation variation. The results highlight the salience and value of behavioral economics-based analyses in empirical research on real estate valuation.
Keyword : task complexity, valuation variation, client influence, overconfidence, confirmation bias, anchoring
How to Cite
Lee, C.-C., Lee, H.-Y., Yeh, W.-C., & Yu, Z. (2022). The impacts of task complexity, overconfidence, confirmation bias, customer influence, and anchoring on variations in real estate valuations. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 26(2), 141-155. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2022.16704
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Chen, F. Y. (2007). Impacts of client influence on real estate valuation (National Science Council-Subsidized Research Project Report, Project No.: NSC 95-2415-H-004-018-SSS).
Chiou, H. J. (2019). Qualitative research and statistical analysis: data analysis with SPSS and R by example (6th rev. ed.). Wunan Books Co.
Clement, B. M. (1999). Analyst forecast accuracy: do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter? Journal of Accounting and Economics, 27(3), 285–303. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4101(99)00013-0
Costa, D. F., de Melo Carvalho, F., de Melo Moreira, B. C., & do Prado, J. W. (2017). Bibliometric analysis on the association between behavioral finance and decision making with cognitive biases such as overconfidence, anchoring effect and confirmation bias. Scientometrics, 111(3), 1775–1799. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-017-2371-5
Crosby, N., Devaney, S., Lizieri, C., & McAllister, P. (2018). Can institutional investors bias real estate portfolio appraisals? Evidence from the market downturn. Journal of Business Ethics, 147(3), 651–667. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-015-2953-1
Eriksen, M. D., Fout, H. B., Palim, M., & Rosenblatt, E. (2020). Contract price confirmation bias: evidence from repeat appraisals. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 60(1), 77–98. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-019-09716-w
Evans, K., Lausberg, C., & How, J. S. S. (2019). Reducing property appraisal bias with decision support systems: an experimental investigation in the South African property market. Journal of African Real Estate Research, 4(1), 108–138. https://doi.org/10.15641/jarer.v4i1.729
Fellner, G., & Krügel, S. (2012). Judgmental overconfidence: three measures, one bias? Journal of Economic Psychology, 33(1), 142–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2011.07.008
Fornell, C., & Larcker, D. F. (1981). Evaluating structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error. Journal of Marketing Research, 18(1), 39–50. https://doi.org/10.1177/002224378101800104
Furnham, A., & Boo, H. C. (2011). A literature review of the anchoring effect. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 40(1), 35–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2010.10.008
Gallimore, P. (1996). Confirmation bias in the valuation process: a test for corroborating evidence. Journal of Property Research, 13(4), 261–273. https://doi.org/10.1080/095999196368781
Geltner, D. (1993). Estimating market values from appraised values without assuming an efficient market. Journal of Real Estate Research, 8(3), 325–345. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.1993.12090713
Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2002). The positive role of overconfidence and optimism in investment policy (Working Papers). The Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
Hair, J. F., Anderson, R. E., Tatham, R. L., & Black, W. C. (2009). Multivariate data analysis (7th ed.) Prentice Hall.
Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., & Babin, B. J. (1998). Multivariate data analysis (5th ed.). Prentice-Hall.
Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B. J., Anderson, R. E., & Tatham R. L. (2006). Multivariate data analysis (6th ed.). Pearson.
Hair, J. F., Risher, J. J., Sarstedt, M., & Ringle, C. M. (2019). When to use and how to report the results of PLS-SEM. European Business Review, 31(1), 2–24. https://doi.org/10.1108/EBR-11-2018-0203
Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1998). The hidden traps in decision making. Harvard Business Review, 76(5), 47–58.
Henseler, J., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2015). A new criterion for assessing discriminant validity in variance-based structural equation modeling. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 43(1), 115–135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-014-0403-8
International Financial Reporting Standards. (n.d.). https://www.twse.com.tw/IFRS/aboutIFRS
Iroham, C. O., Ogunba, O. A., & Oloyede, S. A. (2013). Relative level of occurrence of the principal heuristics in Nigeria property valuation. International Journal of Development and Sustainability, 2(2), 493–504.
Iroham, C. O., Ogunba, O. A., & Oloyede, S. A. (2014). Effect of principal heuristics on accuracy of property valuation in Nigeria. Journal of Land and Rural Studies, 2(1), 89–111. https://doi.org/10.1177/2321024913515104
Kinnard, W. N., Lenk, M. M., & Worzala, E. M. (1997). Client pressure in the commercial appraisal industry: how prevalent is it? Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 15(3), 233–244. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635789710184952
Klamer, P., Bakker, C., & Gruis, V. (2017). Research bias in judgement bias studies – a systematic review of valuation judgement literature. Journal of Property Research, 34(4), 285–304. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2017.1379552
Klamer, P., Bakker, C., & Gruis, V. (2018). Complexity in valuation practice: an inquiry into valuers’ perceptions of task complexity in the Dutch real estate market. Journal of Property Research, 35(3), 209–233. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2018.1510429
Kucharska-Stasiak, E. (2013). Uncertainty of property valuation as a subject of academic research. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 21(4), 17–25. https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2013-0033
Kucharska-Stasiak, E., Źróbek, S., & Cellmer, R. (2018). Forms and effectiveness of the client’s influence on the market value of property-case study. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 26(3), 82–92. https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2018-0027
Kumar, S., & Goyal, N. (2015). Behavioural biases in investment decision making – a systematic literature review. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 7(1), 88–108. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-07-2014-0022
Lee, C. C., & Yu, C. Y. (2007). The study of the relationship among business ethics codes, ethical evaluation, ethical judgment and behavior intention-an example of the real estate brokers. City and Planning, 34(1), 13–37.
Lee, Y. H. (2005). Research on valuation decision behavior of real estate appraisers [Master’s thesis]. National Chengchi University Department of Land Economics, Taipei City. https://hdl.handle.net/11296/ubk348
Levy, D., & Schuck, E. (2005). The influence of clients on valuations: the clients’ perspective. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 23(2), 182–201. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635780510584364
Liao, H. F., Chu, N. Y., & Peng, C. W. (2018). Awareness of independence of real estate appraisers: an empirical analysis. International Real Estate Review, 21(3), 295–316. https://doi.org/10.53383/100263
Ma, X. (2016). Research on real estate appraisal accuracy based on a behavior paradigm. ICCREM: BIM Application and Off-Site Construction, 1048–1055.
Małkowska, A., Uhruska, M., & Tomal, M. (2019). Age and experience versus susceptibility to client pressure among property valuation professionals implications for rethinking institutional framework. Sustainability, 11(23), 6759. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11236759
Ministry of the Interior. (2022). Real estate service and information system. https://resim.land.moi.gov.tw/Home/AssessIndex
Mohammad, N. E., Ali, H. M., & Jasimin, T. H. (2018). Valuer’s behavioural uncertainties in property valuation decision making. Journal of the Malaysian Institute of Planners, 16(1), 239–250. https://doi.org/10.21837/pm.v16i5.428
Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2), 502–517. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.115.2.502
Mwasumbi, A. N., & Tarimo, D. I. (2019). The use of less relevant heuristics in mortgage valuations in Tanzania. Journal of African Real Estate Research, 4(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.15641/jarer.v4i1.660
Nunnally, J. C., & Bernstein, I. H. (1994). Psychometric theory (3rd ed.). McGraw Hill.
Nwuba, C. C., & Salawu, B. M. (2017). Valuers’ perception of the effect of client influence on valuation practice. ATBU Journal of Environmental Technology, 10(2), 47–62.
Nwuba, C. C., Egwuatu, U. S., & Salawu, B. M. (2015). Client influence on valuation: valuers’ motives to succumb. Journal of Property Research, 32(2), 147–172. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2015.1005117
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